The Vicious Cycle in the Bangsamoro

Economic Performance and Investment

Decades of injustice, conflict and insecurity in the Bangsamoro have severely undermined the economic potential of the Bangsamoro. Though it accounts for 3.5% of  the Philippine population, ARMM contributes less than one percent of national output and has a per capita outcome less than a quarter of the national average. While average annual growth in per capita GDP between 2009 and 2013 has been strong across the country, reaching 3.4% nationally and 3,3% in the rest of Mindanao, ARMM registered only a 1% average annual growth over the same time.

Agriculture, fisheries and forestry are the main component of output in ARMM, representing 61.3% of total value added with the services sector contributing a third and industry the remaining 5% With the lowest gross fixed capital formation in the Philippines, primarily concentrated on agriculture inputs, the region has seen a specialization in low value-added products and has a comparatively low agricultural labor productivity leading to a contracting of sector output in recent years. The services sector meanwhile is the primary driver of growth but is constrained by very low public and private investment.

Thought welfare in not synonymous with economic performance, stable and sustained growth and investment increases per capita output  and improves economic opportunities available to the population. Increasing labor productivity, through investments  and entrepreneurship is, therefore, imperative to shift production into higher value added and more labor-intensive industrial and services sectors that are capable of leading growth.

Emplyment

Despite economic opportunities being limited in the region, unemployment at 4.6% and underemployment at 12.3% are relatively low compared to Mindanao (5.3% and 22.9% respectively) and the rest of the country (7.1% and 19.3% respectively). This is primarily as a result  of the very low labor force participation rate in ARMM at 56%, a full ten percentage points lower than the rest of Mindanao, as people have become disaffected and left the labor force.

Women and youth make up a disproportionate share of the idle workforce. Though women's participation in the labor force is often lower due to housework and childcare, a non-participation rate of 68% in ARMM is significantly higher that the national and Mindanao averages of 50% and 49% respectively. Meanwhile, almost a quarter of all 15-24 years old are neither in education nor in the workforce. Lacking the skills to productively participate in the labor market, out-of-school youth are at high risk of poverty and disaffection, potentially leading them to violence and reduced social cohesion. The welfare impact of increasing opportunities for women and youth could therefore be significant.

Education

In part due to limited future economic opportunities, but also as a result of very low investment in schools and teachers, school participation in ARMM is significantly  lower than the rest of the country. The net enrollment rate in SY 2012-13 in ARMM was 72.5% in primary and 26.1% in secondary education, compared to national averages of 95.2% and 64.6% respectively. Despite these low enrollment rates, school overcrowding is very high in ARMM with a teacher to student ratio of 1:52 and 1:54 respectively, and a classroom to student ration of 1:62 and 1:82 respectively in primary and secondary.

Health and Sanitation

A similar lack of investment in health and sanitation has exposed the population, especially children, to significant health risks. Only 37% of the population have access to an improved water source such as a community water system or piped deep well, while a full third rely on natural sources such as spring, rivers, of lakes, and a quarter have access to a simple dug well. Further, only 22% of households have access to sanitary  toilet facilities of water-sealed toilets compared to a national average of more than 80%. Exposure to water-borne disease in ARMM is therefore very high.

Limited access to health facilities, lack of education and funds, and sanitary conditions lead have led ARMM to have the highest under-five mortality in the country at 55 deaths per 1,000 live births. Only 29% of children are fully vaccinated by their first birthday, while 40% have received no vaccinations. Under-five mortality in the poorest household quintile is three times higher than in the wealthiest quintile and a child born to a mother with a college education. In ARMM, 73% of households are in the lowest income quintile  and 33% of women aged 15-49 have no education or did not complete elementary.

Maternal health also lags behind other regions. While almost all women in the country (96%) and in the rest of Mindanao (95%) receive antenatal care from a skilled professional, only 52% of women in ARMM receive antenatal care. In addition, only 12% of births are delivered in a health facility (compared to 61% nationwide), only 20% are delivered by a skilled professional (compared to 72% nationwide), and only 22% of mothers receive postnatal checkups (compared 77% nationwide).

Poverty

As a result of the poor education and health outcomes, limited economic opportunities, and poor regional economic  performance, poverty in the region remains high. More than half of the population (55.8% in 2012) of ARMM lives in poverty. Slow growth and high inflation have led to the poverty incidence increasing  with an estimated 1.85 million people living below the poverty threshold in 2012 almost three times what is was in 1991. The poverty gap has also  been increasing from 8.8% in 2009 to 13.1% in 2012, more than twice the national average of 5.1%.

Courtesy: Philippine Nation Demographic and Health Survey